رسائل ماجيستير
English
2017
Forecasting Models for Renewable Power Dispatch in Microgrids
عادل أحمد, محمد خالد
كلية الهندسة-جامعة الملك فهد للبترول والمعادن · السعودية
Electricity production through renewable energy (RE) resources is globally emphasized nowadays for the achievement of a cleaner planet, but the intermittencies inrenewable power generation make its penetration a challenging task for researchers and power industry. This thesis work proposes to alleviate the issues caused by the uncertainty in renewable power plant output by developing accurate forecasting models and utilizing these models to optimize the economic dispatch. The work is performed in two phases; Firstly, forecasting models are developed for multi-steps ahead wind prediction using intelligent methods merged with state-of-the-art multi-step schemes. A new wind forecasting model based on Functional Network is proposed which is a novel concept in the field of power systems engineering. The proposed model is computationally light as compared to advanced hybrid forecast models and is shown to outperform the well-accepted neural network model as wellas the benchmark persistence model in terms of forecast accuracy. In the second phase, an economic dispatch strategy is proposed for selling energy in an optimal manner from a microgrid with wind generation and battery energy storage system(BESS). Wind power and market price forecasts are incorporated in a receding horizon optimization policy to maximize the running income and operational profits of the wind-BESS microgrid. The utilization of accurate forecast information not only enables a smooth RE power plant operation but also helps in determining an optimal size of the BESS. It is also studied that the accuracy of power andprice forecasts has a significant impact on the improvement in income and profits. In this way, this thesis work has twofold benefits, on one hand, it brings the emerging ideas of artificial intelligence for technology advancement in the energy sector, and on the other hand, it can facilitate economically viable and technically feasible integration of RE resources into the electricity grid.
