رسائل ماجيستير
English
2022
Military expenditure and armament in the Gulf Cooperation Council States & Iran (2012-2022)
Adil Al-Balushi , Cuneyt Yenigun, Saranjam Baig
كلية الإقتصاد والعلوم السياسية-جامعة السلطان قابوس · عمان
Military power is a critical factor in a state's ability to secure its existence, defend itself against potential threats, and exert influence on regional and international scales. Throughout history, the possession and development of weapons have played a prominent and decisive role in the rise and fall of nations on the global political stage. Nevertheless, the concept of military power has undergone significant changes, especially in the 20th century, due to shifts in the nature of threats. Despite this, the possession, manufacture, and development of weapons remain fundamental issues in determining a state’s strength, status, and ability to defend itself.
After the Cold War, the international system witnessed a transformation: with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, bipolarity gave way to unipolarity, dominated by the United States. The U.S. actively enhanced its global power and dominance, recognizing that oil was the backbone of industry and the economy at the time. Consequently, it strengthened strategic relations with oil-producing countries by establishing security alliances and military partnerships. This policy culminated in what became known as the "Carter Doctrine," which asserted the U.S. right to use military force to defend its interests and the oil-rich states of the Middle East.
For the first time since the founding of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), the military forces of all member states were assembled for joint training under a unified command just three years after the GCC’s establishment. This military gathering marked a major achievement. Leaders of the Supreme Council indicated at the time that their intent extended beyond cooperation in "soft" fields, aspiring to collaborate in military affairs as well. However, there was no indication of intentions to cooperate in defense industries.
In recent years, strategic relations between the United States and the GCC states have deteriorated for several reasons. Firstly, China's growing role in both the economic and military spheres poses a genuine threat to U.S. hegemony in the global arms market. Secondly, the importance of Gulf oil has diminished due to the U.S. ability to produce shale oil. Thirdly, the escalating cost of U.S. military engagements in the Middle East—such as the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan and the 2003 invasion of Iraq—and its subsequent gradual withdrawal from the region (culminating in the permanent U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021) have shifted dynamics.
For the GCC states, Iranian influence remains a strategic threat requiring containment and preparedness. Traditionally reliant on the U.S. for defense, the GCC states now face changes in U.S. foreign policy under President Joe Biden, increased international criticism related to internal political and social conditions, and the ongoing conflict in Yemen. Furthermore, arms imports from some European countries have been restricted. The GCC states’ awareness of the need for self-reliance in weapons manufacturing is not recent or solely a reaction to shifts in U.S. policy; rather, it is built on earlier efforts that have only recently gained renewed seriousness—especially after the sudden U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and the U.S.’s desire to pursue negotiations with Iran, which has heightened GCC fears.
The Gulf region ranks first among potential global hotspots of tension. It is the world's largest market for oil exports and arms imports and a vital interest for all global powers. The GCC views Iran as a potential expansionist threat, and the GCC states have rapidly built substantial militaries. Over four decades, Iran has pursued contradictory policies: while calling for the end of U.S. military presence in the Gulf—arguing that it causes instability—it has simultaneously sought to develop ballistic missile programs capable of delivering nuclear, biological, chemical, and radiological (NBCR) warheads throughout the region and even to Europe.
The security dilemma in the Gulf is complex and ambiguous. GCC states have pursued diverse defense policies and approaches to building their armed forces. In some cases, creating strong armies serves not only to ensure security but also to foster national identity.
This research aims to study armament and defense industrialization programs in the Arabian Gulf regional system, including Iran, Iraq, and Turkey, through examining military theories, the components of security theories, defense policies, and military construction programs.
The research raises key questions, including: What are the existing military industrialization areas within each GCC state? Why do GCC states need military industries, and what are the economic, political, and security benefits of such industries? Who are the GCC’s partners in military industrialization, and what is the future outlook for this sector in the Gulf? How can GCC states benefit from Turkey’s experience in defense industries? To what extent can GCC states achieve military independence without reliance on the United States?
Furthermore, the research seeks to answer these questions to achieve several objectives: providing an overview of the importance of the military industry in national security strategies, with a focus on the Gulf states; illuminating the current reality of military industries in the Gulf; discussing opportunities and challenges facing these industries; and forecasting the future of military industrialization in the region.
Finally, the research aims to propose alternative solutions to defense challenges in the Gulf, particularly regarding the future of defense industries, with the goal of reducing dependence on the United States and European countries for arms procurement and identifying strategic partners to support the emerging defense industrial base in the Gulf.
