رسائل ماجيستير
English
2021
Modelling The Effects Of Climate Change Onair Quality In The Dammam Metropolitan Area, Saudi Arabia , Using Aermod Coupled With station And Mesoscale Weather Data
Tawabini Bassam , مصطفى محمد باباتوندي
كلية هندسة البترول وعلوم الأرض-جامعة الملك فهد للبترول والمعادن · السعودية
Air dispersion (AD) models such as AERMOD are important tools for estimating theenvironmental impacts of air pollutant emissions into the atmosphere from anthropogenicsources. The outcome of these models is significantly linked to the climate conditions such asair temperatures and wind speeds, which are expected to differ in the future due to the globalwarming phenomenon. With projections from scientific sources of impending changes to thefuture climate of Saudi Arabia, especially temperature rise, there is a potential direct impact onthe dispersion patterns of air pollutants results from AD models. To our knowledge, no similarstudies were carried out in Saudi Arabia to investigate such impact. Therefore, this researchinvestigates the effects of climate change on air quality in the Dammam Metropolitan area,Saudi Arabia, using AERMOD coupled with Station and Mesoscale Weather data usingSulphur dioxide (SO 2 )– as a model air pollutant.The research uses AERMOD model to predictthe SO 2 dispersion trends on the surrounding area. Emissions from five (5) industrial stacks,on twenty-eight (28) receptors in the study area were considered for the climate period (2010-2019) and future period of mid-century (2040-2060) under different scenarios of elevatedtemperature profiles (+1 o C, + 3 o C and + 5 o C) and wind speed (+0.6 m/s, +1.2 m/s and +1.8m/s)across averaging time periods of 1hr, 4hr and 8hr.Results showed that levels of SO 2 at thereceiving sites under current and simulated future climactic condition fall within the allowablelimit of WHO and KSA air quality standards. Results also revealed that the projected rise intemperature would only have mild increment on the SO 2 concentration levels while change inwind speed will have more significant impacts. The average increase of SO 2 levels were 0.04%,0.14%, and 0.23% due to the temperature increase of 1, 3, and 5 degrees respectively while thelevels reduced by 10.9%, 15.16% and 18.13% when wind speed increased by 0.6m/s, 1.2m/sand 1.8m/s respectively. This indicates that the changes in wind speed had far more significanteffects on air pollutant concentration compared to air temperature. In conclusion, outcome ofthis work elucidates the degree of the effects of global warming and climate changesphenomena on air quality and can help the policy makers in their decision-making, given thesignificant health challenges associated with ambient air pollution in Saudi Arabia. Keywords: Air Quality, Sulfur Dioxide, Dispersion models, Global Warming, KSA