أثر إجراءات التيسير الكمى للولايات المتحدة فى الأسواق الناشئة

الموضوعات

اقتصاد

روابط وملفات

التعريف والنوع

رقم الوثيقة

ffee6486-549e-45c7-a142-62b153d75451

رقم العقد

0

نوع الوسائط

Crawler

نوع المحتوى

الرسائل العلمية

صيغة المصدر

رسائل ماجيستير

نوع الملف

pdf text

أسماء الملفات

1960297_1.pdf

بيانات النشر

ترجمة العنوان

The Impact of US Quantitative Easing Procedures on Emerging Markets

ألقاب المؤلفين

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اللغة

Arabic

المصدر والدورية

اسم المصدر

أثر إجراءات التيسير الكمى للولايات المتحدة فى الأسواق الناشئة

المحتوى والصفحات

عدد الصفحات

0

ترجمة الملخص

The study has aimed to investigate the direct impacts of Quantitative Easing Programs conducted by The Federal Reserve Systemin The United States on Foreign Trade Variables of Emerging Markets, and the indirect impacts when The US Dollar and crude oil prices inserted in the path analysis models as mediator variables. The most Important findings show that:1-Quantitative Easing isunconventional monetary policy used by central banks in developed economies during the global financial crisis since late 2008. QE aimed to reduce interest rates to the lowest level possible near to zero, and then attempted to increase the money supply by buying large amounts of diversified financial assets and injected liquidity into the economy to stimulate growth and employment rates.2-Quantitative Easing wasn't the only instrumentof unconventional monetary policy, The GFC forced many central banks around the world to use other unconventional monetary policy instruments,such as qualitative easing, credit easing, and negative interest rate policy.3-The Federal Reserve's quantitative easing procedures were effective in reducing the cost of loans, and increasing the size of banks' reserves, which contributed significantly to the increase in the volume of credit in the US economy. The cuts in interest rates also extended to long-term bonds. On the international level, interest rates on bonds and financial assets in both developed and emerging markets fell, especially in the first program of US QE.4-The quantitative easing programs of the Federal Reserve contributed to depreciations in the dollar exchange rate, but these depreciations weren't so large as to be equivalent to the size of the large programs, and gave US exports a competitive advantage in the internationaltrademarkets.5-Quantitative easing programs contributed to the positive changes in global energy markets through the increase in the demand for oil especially from Emerging Markets, and the depreciation of US Dollar caused a rise in oil price, since the oil is priced in US dollars.6-The effects of US quantitative easing programs on the real effective exchange rates of emerging markets' currencies differed in terms of the mechanism, volume, and direction of the impacts. The direct impacts were significant only in the exchange rates of 11 currencies from the emerging market group, and the indirect effects were significant in the exchange rates of only 4 currencies. In terms of direction of impact, the relationship was positive in the exchange rates of 7 currencies and negative exchange rates of only 4 currencies. As for the size of the effects, the impacts were very weak. Thus, US quantitative easing directly affects the real effective exchange rates of emerging market currencies, and indirectly affects them when the real effective exchange rate of The US Dollar is enteredin the model as a mediator variable. The effects of US quantitative easing programs on the export values of emerging marketswere similar in terms of impact and trendmechanism and only varied in size of effects.Both direct and indirect impacts on all 22 emerging markets' exports. On the one hand, the overall effectswerepositive.The researcher explained that as quantitative easing programs caused depreciationsin the US dollar against emerging market currencies, which gave US exports a competitive advantage in international markets, prompting some emerging markets to lower their exchange rates to keep pace with the decline in the dollar exchange rate.Thus, US quantitative easing directly impacts the export valuesof emerging market, and indirectly impacts them when thereal effectiveexchange rate of The US Dollar is enteredin the modelas a mediator variable.8-The effects of US quantitative easing programs on the import values of emerging marketsweresimilar in terms of impact mechanism and trend, and only varied in size of effects.Direct impacts were significant in importvaluesof all 22 emerging markets. Indirect effects werealsosignificant in importvaluesof all emerging markets except Qatar and UAE. The overall effects were positive, indicating that US quantitative easing have succeeded in stimulating global economic growth. This has given a positive boost to the world oil markets, which has affected oil prices especially after the great collapse of global energy markets in the second half of 2008. And this explains the positive relationship betweenUSquantitative easing and imports of emerging market. Thus, US quantitative easing directly impacts the import valuesof emerging market, and indirectly impacts them when the crude oil price is entered in the model as a mediator variable.

كلمات الباحثين

Currency Wars, Emerging Markets, Indirect Effect, Mediator Variable, Monetary Policies, Path Analysis, Quantitative Easing, Zero Bound Interest Rates, أثر غير مباشر, الأسواق الناشئة, التيسير الكمي, الدولار, النفط, تحليل المسار, حرب عملات, سياسات نقدية غير تقليدية, متغير وسيط, معدلات فائدة صفرية

إشراف وإعداد

الإشراف

أحمد زهير شامية

الإعداد

فراس دبا

الاقتباسات الببليوغرافية