Forecasting of Industrial Electricity Sales in Sudan Using ARIMA Models (2006 – 2012

Adel Ali Ahmed , Izz Eldin Mustafa Altayeb Mohammed, Saad Eldin Mohammed Saad Eldin

كلية العلوم الرياضية والحاسوب-جامعة الجزيرة · السودان

الموضوعات

علوم بحتة وطبيعية

الملخص

Electric sector is considered as public description and the Sudanese company for Electricity distribution limited in Sudan specifically between as importance institute which must be interested in planning operation and prediction. The aim of this research is to use Box – Jenkins methodology (ARIMA Models) for time series to find the best model to forecast the Industrial Electricity sales (state of Khartoum) of Sudanese Company for Electricity Distribution limited in the period from 2006 to 2012. The research depended on Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) in the analysis. The research concluded that the best and suitable model is the mixed model (1,1,2) ARIMA. According to this model the Research forecasted the Industrial electricity sales for next five years, so the forecasting values agree with time series data to reflect the efficiency of the model. It found that the change in the data every year cannot be attributed to time alone, but there are other factors behind that. The research recommended the Sudanese Company for Electricity Distribution Ltd to use the mixed model (1,1,2) ARIMA to forecast the industrial electricity sales in the future.

روابط وملفات

الوثيقة في المستودع الخارجي عرض في AskZad

التعريف والنوع

رقم الوثيقة: fe768f12-65b2-4b11-9377-728c19b8d60b
رقم العقد: 0
نوع الوسائط: Crawler
نوع المحتوى: الرسائل العلمية
صيغة المصدر: رسائل ماجيستير
نوع الملف: pdf text
أسماء الملفات: 72669_1.pdf

بيانات النشر

ألقاب المؤلفين: [{"name_ar":"Adel Ali Ahmed ","title_ar":"اشراف","title_en":"Supervision"},{"name_ar":"Izz Eldin Mustafa Altayeb Mohammed","title_ar":"اعداد","title_en":"Preparation"},{"name_ar":"Saad Eldin Mohammed Saad Eldin","title_ar":"اشراف","title_en":"Supervision"}]
اللغة: English

المصدر والدورية

اسم المصدر: Forecasting of Industrial Electricity Sales in Sudan Using ARIMA Models (2006 – 2012

المحتوى والصفحات

عدد الصفحات: 0

إشراف وإعداد

الإشراف: Adel Ali Ahmed , Saad Eldin Mohammed Saad Eldin
الإعداد: Izz Eldin Mustafa Altayeb Mohammed

الاقتباسات الببليوغرافية

APA

Adel Ali Ahmed ،Izz Eldin Mustafa Altayeb Mohammed و Saad Eldin Mohammed Saad Eldin. (2013). Forecasting of Industrial Electricity Sales in Sudan Using ARIMA Models (2006 – 2012 . أطروحة(رسائل ماجيستير). كلية العلوم الرياضية والحاسوب-جامعة الجزيرة. السودان.

MLA

Adel Ali Ahmed ،Izz Eldin Mustafa Altayeb Mohammed و Saad Eldin Mohammed Saad Eldin. Forecasting of Industrial Electricity Sales in Sudan Using ARIMA Models (2006 – 2012 . 2013. كلية العلوم الرياضية والحاسوب-جامعة الجزيرة، رسائل ماجيستير.