Rainfall Prediction And Its Impact On Water Resources Management In Central Sudan

الموضوعات

زراعة

الملخص

An overview of the status and problems associated with water resources at the national and the global levels was presented with special emphasis on water shortages. In addition to that efforts, institutions and programmes in the water sector were covered. The mechanisms, distribution and factors affecting rainfall of the Sudan like Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), winds, El Nino Southern Oscillation (the ENSO event) and Tropical Easterly Jet Stream (TEJS) were discussed in some detail. The review also includes rainfall forecast techniques, forecast verification and institutions concerned with rainfall forecast. Four meteorological stations were selected in the dry zone in Sudan. Namely these are: Obied, Khartoum, Fashir and Kassala. The data obtained from these stations when averaged represent the dry region. During years of prolonged (،ف 9 months) La Nina, rainfall of the region was found generally to be above normal contrary to prolonged El Nino which is generally characterized by below normal rainfall. Furthermore, higher forecast capabilities are associated with the La Nina stage. The ENSO event was divided into six distinct stages. During starting La Nina stage July-August- September (JAS) rainfall of the region was found to be markedly above normal whereas starting El Nino gave normal rainfall. For both dying La Nina and El Nino markedly below normal rainfall was recorded. As for the well established stages it is markedly above normal for the well established La Nina and markedly below normal for well established El Nino stage. It was found that the effect of La Nina is direct and concurrent whereas El Nino works with lag-time. In addition to that bad rainy seasons were found to start normally. Seasonal wadis are of vital importance in dry and semidry Sudan, the annual discharge of such wadis was estimated to range from 3 to 7 km3 per annum following the erratic nature of rainfall. Generally the discharges of wadi Niyala, Arbaat and Abu Habil were not consistent with the rainfall of the region during the different stages of the ENSO event. The methodology can illustrate about 50% of the discharge behaviour of wadi Niyala and 33% of that of both Abu Habil and Arbaat. This is attributed beside other probable causes to the limited data available for both Abu Habil and wadi Niyala. On the other hand, Arbaat is located in an area that is out of phase with the ENSO event. However, the methodology is capable of predicting about 83% of the discharge behaviour of Khor Abu Fargha. This is attributed to the fact that the wadi is located in an area that is influenced by the ENSO event and to the availability of the discharge data for consecutive 34 years. During the 1990s the use of global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in rainfall seasonal forecast studies was initiated through the development of empirical-statistical models. Using such methodology Kassala and Khartoum were found to achieve the highest and lowest predictabilities respectively. The models predicting Abu Fargha discharges were found to excel those for the meteorological stations and the region as well. This is attributed to the fact that wadi discharges represent the whole catchment area whereas rainfall data represent only the rain gauge readings. In addition to that May global SSTs achieved better predictability with regard to both Abu Fargha discharges and Kassala rainfall. The forecast information can be used in the management of surface and ground water resources like Azaza Aquifer in Gedarif area, in agricultural planning, disaster mitigation and management of the natural resources. The study recommended the use of water harvesting, supplementary irrigation and other improved production packages to improve crop and pasture productivity, to stop expansion in the agricultural sector, reforestation and rehabilitation of rangelands and environmental conservation.

روابط وملفات

التعريف والنوع

رقم الوثيقة

efc7cc11-3a1b-46d5-b348-680ec39ee5f6

رقم العقد

0

نوع الوسائط

Crawler

نوع المحتوى

الرسائل العلمية

صيغة المصدر

رسائل ماجيستير

نوع الملف

pdf text

أسماء الملفات

1635775_1.pdf

بيانات النشر

ألقاب المؤلفين

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اللغة

English

المصدر والدورية

اسم المصدر

Rainfall Prediction And Its Impact On Water Resources Management In Central Sudan

المحتوى والصفحات

عدد الصفحات

0

إشراف وإعداد

الإشراف

Abdalla Khiyar Abdalla , Amir Bakheit Saeed

الإعداد

Tarig Elgamri Ataelmanan

الاقتباسات الببليوغرافية