تقييم التغير في درجات الحرارة وكميات الأمطار وتأثيره في التغير السنوي لإنتاج القمح البعل في مناطق متباينة مناخيا من سورية

الموضوعات

علوم تطبيقية وتكنولوجية

روابط وملفات

التعريف والنوع

رقم الوثيقة

0aac75b8-a1d8-4142-8134-a851f0af3308

رقم العقد

0

نوع الوسائط

Crawler

نوع المحتوى

الرسائل العلمية

صيغة المصدر

رسائل ماجيستير

نوع الملف

pdf text

أسماء الملفات

1960441_1.pdf

بيانات النشر

ترجمة العنوان

Assessment of change in temperatures and rainfall and its influence on the annual change of rainfed wheat production in climatically variable regions of Syria

ألقاب المؤلفين

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اللغة

Arabic

المصدر والدورية

اسم المصدر

تقييم التغير في درجات الحرارة وكميات الأمطار وتأثيره في التغير السنوي لإنتاج القمح البعل في مناطق متباينة مناخيا من سورية

المحتوى والصفحات

عدد الصفحات

85

ترجمة الملخص

The phenomenon of climate change and its potential consequences is one of the most important challenges facing human development in the twenty-first century and one of the most important environmental issues related to human life, prosperity and security. This study examined the analysis of trends of changes in the annual, seasonal and monthly averages of temperature and the quantities of precipitation for the period )2010-1972( and in some climatic indices of temperature and precipitation for the period (1977-2010) in Idlib, Hama and Dara, and to assess the impact of these changes on the annual change in the production of rainfed wheat for the period (1985-2010) in these regions. The results of the analysis using linear regressiontest and Spearman's rank correlation coefficient revealed a clear and significant increase in mean annual temperature ranges between 0.36 and 0.6 °C per decade, which mainly related to the increase in temperature during the warm period of the year, especially during the summer. The increase in the minimum temperature was more pronounced and significant than the increase in the maximum temperature at both the annual and seasonal scales in Hama and Dara, while the increase in the maximum temperature was more pronounced and significant in the Idlib region. The results of precipitation analysis for the rainy season showed an increase in Idleb precipitation (4.7 mm / decade) due to the increase in winter precipitation. While precipitation has decreased in Hama (-5.6 mm/contract) and in Dara (-5.2 m/contract). This is due to the decrease of the spring precipitation in the first place and then the fall precipitation, and all the trends are statistically insignificant. The results also revealed an increase in the amounts of winter precipitation and decrease in the autumn and spring precipitation, all of these trends are not statistically significant. The results of climatic indices analysis showed a clear and significant increase in the daily temperature range and the number of tropical summer days and nights in all stations. There was also a clear increase in the number of summer days in Idlib and Hama stations, a clear increase in the temperature of the warmer nights and a marked decrease in the number of frost days in Hama and Dara stations. While the temperature of the coldest days and nights did not show any significant trend. As for precipitation, a significant increase was observed only in the number of consecutive wet days in Idlib. And a significant decrease in the annual rainfall for wet days, the number of days of heavy precipitation and an increase in the number of consecutive dry days in all stations. The study showed a strong and significant correlation between the productivity of wheat and the annual quantities of precipitation and during the stages of crop growth. The regression models, which accounted for approximately 50% of the variation in yield productivity, showed that precipitation is the main contributor to the fluctuation of wheat crop production and therefore its decline during crop growth stages will negatively affect its production.

كلمات الباحثين

climate change, climate indices, precipitation, rainfed wheat, temperature, القمح البعل, المؤشرات المناخية, الهطل, تغير المناخ, درجة الحرارة

إشراف وإعداد

الإشراف

صلاح قواس

الإعداد

هيفين علي بوزو

الاقتباسات الببليوغرافية