An Econometric Model For Road Crashes in Khartoum State

الموضوعات

علوم بيئية

الملخص

This research examines the trends, the characteristics of traffic accidents and sustaining injuries, inaddition to the underlying factors behind them in Khartoum State during the period 1991-2007. Thedata of the study were collected from the Police reports, Insurance companies statistics, and a survey of400 drivers.The research consists of both methodological and empirical work. A part of the methodologicalresearch is oriented towards time series and cross sectional modeling. This involves advancedeconometric methods such as stationarity analysis , the State-Space methods , and DRAG models .The empirical work involves estimating accidents risk function using ARIMA models, regressionmodels with ARMA errors, and logistic regression for the explanation and prediction of death, andfatal accidents and assessing risky behavior of drivers.The results suggested that traffic accidents are non-stationary and have seasonality with December,January, February, and March witnessing the highest rates. Law enforcement, and economicimprovements, and awareness campaigns have contributed positively to reducing accidents. Also,risky behavior is widely prevalent among drivers represented in excessive speeding, lack of seat-beltand children restraint use, drink-driving, and using mobiles while driving.For reducing road accidents in Khartoum State, the research recommended a strategy includingawareness campaigns, road maintenance and engineering improvements, safer vehicles, education andtraining for traffic police , traffic legislations concerning traffic safety such as seat belt use andchildren restraint.

روابط وملفات

التعريف والنوع

رقم الوثيقة

09f4c694-c2ab-4952-921f-b7c6cd92e06c

رقم العقد

0

نوع الوسائط

Crawler

نوع المحتوى

الرسائل العلمية

صيغة المصدر

رسائل دكتوراة

نوع الملف

pdf text

أسماء الملفات

1629807_1.pdf

بيانات النشر

ألقاب المؤلفين

[{"name_ar":"احمد الشيخ محمد أحمد","title_ar":"اشراف","title_en":"Supervision"},{"name_ar":"عمر علي ابراهيم محمد","title_ar":"اعداد","title_en":"Preparation"}]

اللغة

English

المصدر والدورية

اسم المصدر

An Econometric Model For Road Crashes in Khartoum State

المحتوى والصفحات

عدد الصفحات

0

إشراف وإعداد

الإشراف

احمد الشيخ محمد أحمد

الإعداد

عمر علي ابراهيم محمد

الاقتباسات الببليوغرافية