Graduating 2008 Census Data For Fertility Estimation in Sudan

الموضوعات

علوم تطبيقية وتكنولوجية

الملخص

In many censuses and surveys in Africa and under developing areas, the fertility data are prone to error and in most cases clearly wrong. Nevertheless this study attempts to compute all fertility measures that are agreed upon by demographers from the fertility data collected in the Sudan’5th Population Census Long Questionnaires, to identify the level of fertility of Sudan using non age structure measures, age specific fertility measures and cohort measures and to identify levels of indicators of replacement Gross Reproduction Rate" GRR" and Net Reproduction Rate "NRR" and also to estimate total fertility rate using the Brass polynomial model with two parameters. The computed indicators are broadly divided in two concepts, that is Period Fertility and Cohort Fertility. For each of these concepts a number of indicators were computed. The study used the data for Sudan Total and did not attempt to compute the same indicators by region or states because the volume of work will be very bulky and tedious. In summary the results show that there is decline in fertility with Total Fertility Rate " TFR" falling from 6.7 in 1993 to 5.7 in 2008 i.e. a fall of approximately 15%. The study also analyzed the census data in reproductivity and computed the "GRR" and "NRR" in addition to the timing of fertility by computing the mean age of fertility performance. Almost all fertility indicators witnessed a decline similar to "TFR". The study tried to be very academic in explaining the concepts underlying current, cohort fertility and reproductivity and in pointing to the strength and weakness of any computed indicator. The study recommends use of retrospective data have to be done after graduating the current data, especially twelve months preceding to the census and make sure that estimates are always valid using more than one model to analyze fertility to reach the desired consistency in the estimates and we recommend here Bongart (1985) approximate determinants method . The study also recommends graduation of raw data using logic or probity models before imparking on a dual estimation .The parity progression ratio in also a good method graduation which in used here to consistency of the estimation and gave resalable results.

روابط وملفات

التعريف والنوع

رقم الوثيقة

00a99ce6-b7a6-45d2-b3f0-e675eb06dab4

رقم العقد

0

نوع الوسائط

Crawler

نوع المحتوى

الرسائل العلمية

صيغة المصدر

رسائل ماجيستير

نوع الملف

pdf text

أسماء الملفات

72904_1.pdf

بيانات النشر

ألقاب المؤلفين

[{"name_ar":"Ahmed Hamed Alnory","title_ar":"اشراف","title_en":"Supervision"},{"name_ar":"Isam Omer Fudol","title_ar":"اشراف","title_en":"Supervision"},{"name_ar":"Islam Abdelrahim Ahmed Hussein","title_ar":"اعداد","title_en":"Preparation"}]

اللغة

English

المصدر والدورية

اسم المصدر

Graduating 2008 Census Data For Fertility Estimation in Sudan

المحتوى والصفحات

عدد الصفحات

0

إشراف وإعداد

الإشراف

Ahmed Hamed Alnory, Isam Omer Fudol

الإعداد

Islam Abdelrahim Ahmed Hussein

الاقتباسات الببليوغرافية